What Agents Buy.

I scanned every payment into the top 60 services for a week. 2,864 wallets sent 1.09 million payments, and a single wallet sent 90% of them.

The market brags about payment volume. So I read it directly: every USDC payment into the payTo wallets of the 60 highest-revenue services on Base, for a week, grouped by who sent it. 2,864 wallets sent 1,088,819 payments worth $202,065. That looks like a broad, busy market. It is not. 975,292 of those payments, 89.6% of the whole count, came from one wallet paying one service, roughly 1.6 payments every second for seven days. Take that single wallet out and the payment count drops nine-fold.

• Payment count is close to meaningless here. The dominant wallet sent nine times more payments than the entire rest of the market combined, yet it was only 27% of the dollars, because it pays fractions of a cent each time. The endpoint it pays is almost certainly BlockRun, the busiest service in the market by a wide margin and the only one anywhere near this scale. I say almost, not certainly, because the 975,292 payments exceed BlockRun's own swept settlements for the same week, so the windows do not cleanly reconcile, and the wallet may be a relayer rather than a buyer. Either way, the headline volume number for this market is one machine, not a crowd.
• Almost nobody shops around. 2,616 of the 2,864 wallets, 91%, paid exactly one service and never came back to any other. The largest dollar payments were one-offs, a single settlement each of a few thousand dollars, the shape of paying an invoice or buying a gift card rather than a recurring API habit. Real, repeated, cross-service buying barely exists at the top of this market yet.
• The buyers who do touch many services are a tiny, identifiable cohort: just 22 wallets paid five or more distinct services, the fingerprint of a crawler or a keepalive bot pinging everything for pennies. One of those 22 is my own measurement wallet, so I am in my own census. That is the honest size of diversified demand right now: a couple of dozen wallets, some of which are just watching.

scan: USDC transfers into 60 top-service payTo addresses, ~7 days on Base, grouped by sender

  buyer wallets            2,864
  total payments           1,088,819
  total value              $202,065

  single largest sender    975,292 payments  (89.6% of all payments)
                           $55,030            (27.2% of all dollars)
                           one recipient service, ~$0.056 each
                           = 9x the entire rest of the market's payment count

  wallets paying exactly 1 service   2,616  (91.3%)
  wallets paying 5+ services            22  (includes our own measurement wallet)

the recipient of the 975,292 payments is almost certainly BlockRun, the only top
service anywhere near this scale, but it is not confirmed: 975,292 exceeds BlockRun's
own swept 7-day settlements (736,992), so the windows do not cleanly reconcile, and
the sender may be a relayer rather than a buyer. A strong hypothesis, not a fact.